Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (22%) · No at 78¢ · $16K held · ends Jun 15, 2027

Yes23¢No77¢Ends Tue, Jun 15, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 22%

Total Value

$16.0K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Entry

83.3¢ → 77.5¢

-7% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes23%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$14.3K

Total Shares18,280

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Yes7 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares7,781

Combined PnL-$214.99

No — 22%Yes — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

721h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

20 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO Momo63	Noavg 83.3¢	$15.0K	$14.1K	$-1.0K	93% 879-63 (942)
LE leegunnerCTR	Yesavg 36.4¢	$1.5K	$1.2K	-$324.61	41% 1281-1829 (3110)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 15.2¢	$190	$281.24	+$91.25	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
StarMasterCTR	Yesavg 23¢	$230	$225	-$5	53% 1858-1640 (3498)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 83.2¢	$288.79	$204.94	-$13.77	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.6¢	$4.14	$34.36	+$25.33	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 21.9¢	$27.76	$27.45	+$0.78	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
ED Ed2357CTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$10	$7.76	-$2.24	— 0-3 (3)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100	Yesavg 45¢	$1	$0.5	-$0.5	42% 2258-3075 (5333)

Momo63

Invested

$15,009.36

Value

$14.1K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

93%

879-63 (942)

leegunnerCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,498.95

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$324.61

Record

41%

1281-1829 (3110)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$190

Value

$281.24

PnL

+$91.25

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

StarMasterCTR

Yes

Invested

$230

Value

$225

PnL

-$5

Record

53%

1858-1640 (3498)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$288.79

Value

$204.94

PnL

-$13.77

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.14

Value

$34.36

PnL

+$25.33

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.76

Value

$27.45

PnL

+$0.78

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

Ed2357CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$7.76

PnL

-$2.24

Record

—

0-3 (3)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

42%

2258-3075 (5333)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

721h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

20 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.