Consensus PnL $140K · win rate 94% (962–56, n=1018) · PM monthly #260 · holds 8 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$140.2K
Record
962W / 56L
Win Rate
94.0%
of 1018 settled
Batting Avg
25.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#166
Source
PM monthly #260
Trades
182
Markets
1,051
Volume
$15.6M
Top consensus positions
8 in listed consensus markets · 7 of 8 on the consensus side (88%)- Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?No $40K · now 89¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (55% of 20)
- Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-11-01?No $39K · now 100¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (75% of 20)
- Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-11-01?No $25K · now 85¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (78% of 29)
- Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Yes $16K · now 100¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (81% of 21)
- Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?No $14K · now 78¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (22% of 9)
- Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?No $12K · now 88¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (29% of 14)
- Will Chelsea win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?No $1.4K · now 96¢ · in at 88¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?No $13 · now 96¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (71% of 21)
Specialties
984 settled consensus markets · held side won 97% at an average entry of 95¢- Tennis
+4 pts
side won 99% of 150 · avg entry 95¢
ROI +3%
Weakest: F1 — held side won 93% of 30 at an average 94¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%(won 0% of 3)
- 30–50¢: 0%(won 50% of 2)
- 50–70¢: 0%(won 67% of 3)
- 70¢ and up: 99%(won 97% of 976)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.