Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (91%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2026-27 NBA MVP?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 9.5¢ · $565 held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes10¢No90¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$565.39

Combined PnL

$338.79

Smart Money Entry

4.3¢ → 9.5¢

+121% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 91%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$565.39

Total Shares5,951

Combined PnL+$338.79

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

436h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 5.1¢	$242.94	$454.81	+$211.87	— 3-5 (8)
RA rainbowliliesCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$4.24	$47.5	+$43.26	— 0-3 (3)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$3.01	$25.45	+$22.44	84% 21-4 (25)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$4.02	$19.59	+$15.57	— 0-2 (2)
DG DG-NOCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.95	$10.65	+$9.7	— 0-3 (3)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$0.72	$4.09	+$3.37	— 4-3 (7)
E4 e46m3CTR	Yesavg 1.7¢	$128.28	$3.11	+$32.42	39% 179-277 (456)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$0.03	$0.19	+$0.16	— 0-1 (1)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$242.94

Value

$454.81

PnL

+$211.87

Record

—

3-5 (8)

rainbowliliesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.24

Value

$47.5

PnL

+$43.26

Record

—

0-3 (3)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.01

Value

$25.45

PnL

+$22.44

Record

84%

21-4 (25)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.02

Value

$19.59

PnL

+$15.57

Record

—

0-2 (2)

DG-NOCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.95

Value

$10.65

PnL

+$9.7

Record

—

0-3 (3)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.72

Value

$4.09

PnL

+$3.37

Record

—

4-3 (7)

e46m3CTR

Yes

Invested

$128.28

Value

$3.11

PnL

+$32.42

Record

39%

179-277 (456)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.19

PnL

+$0.16

Record

—

0-1 (1)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 91%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

436h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance11.0%

9.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$811.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

911.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.