Will Solana reach $200 by December 31, 2026?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 95¢ · $19K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 100%
$19.4K
$1.0K
91.1¢ → 95.3¢
+5% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Late
1510h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OE oegdatam | Noavg 90.9¢ | $10.3K | $9.9K | +$504.95 | 87% 149-22 (171) |
DF DFV2 | Noavg 91¢ | $5.3K | $5.6K | +$277.32 | 91% 198-19 (217) |
LA Lasting-Dessert | Noavg 94¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$19.4 | 89% 563-67 (630) |
 solwizzo-onX | Noavg 86.8¢ | $543.52 | $601.39 | +$57.87 | 67% 347-174 (521) |
 4751346 | Noavg 94¢ | $493.5 | $501.9 | +$8.4 | 72% 1257-483 (1740) |
PH phdcapital | Noavg 89¢ | $409.55 | $439.92 | +$28.53 | 94% 259-17 (276) |
CO cowcat | No | $399.61 | $399.61 | +$139.96 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4 | Noavg 92¢ | $393.23 | $393.22 | -$0.01 | 54% 785-659 (1444) |
Invested
$10,332.65
Value
$9.9K
PnL
+$504.95
Record
87%
149-22 (171)
Invested
$5,315.5
Value
$5.6K
PnL
+$277.32
Record
91%
198-19 (217)
Invested
$1,519.74
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$19.4
Record
89%
563-67 (630)
solwizzo-onXInvested
$543.52
Value
$601.39
PnL
+$57.87
Record
67%
347-174 (521)
4751346Invested
$493.5
Value
$501.9
PnL
+$8.4
Record
72%
1257-483 (1740)
Invested
$409.55
Value
$439.92
PnL
+$28.53
Record
94%
259-17 (276)
Invested
$399.61
Value
$399.61
PnL
+$139.96
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Invested
$393.23
Value
$393.22
PnL
-$0.01
Record
54%
785-659 (1444)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.