Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (89%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Tampa Bay Lightning be the 2027 NHL Eastern Conference Champion?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 12¢ · $840 held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$840.36

Combined PnL

-$82.7

Smart Money Entry

13¢ → 11.5¢

-11% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 89%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$725.46

Total Shares5,580

Combined PnL-$82.46

No4 traders

Total Value$114.9

Total Shares132

Combined PnL-$0.24

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-36 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

58h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	Yesavg 13¢	$699.97	$700.32	-$80.43	52% 6135-5765 (11900)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 88.4¢	$38.94	$38.34	-$0.6	53% 23469-20698 (44167)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 88¢	$35.2	$34.8	-$0.4	58% 15784-11478 (27262)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 85¢	$32.3	$33.06	+$0.76	46% 9372-11125 (20497)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$20.22	$20.22	-$2.33	55% 3175-2632 (5807)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 87¢	$8.7	$8.7	+$0	47% 10328-11796 (22124)
ND ndb1CTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$2	$2.6	+$0.3	64% 1050-593 (1643)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$2.32	$2.32	+$0	58% 21138-15369 (36507)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

Yes

Invested

$699.97

Value

$700.32

PnL

-$80.43

Record

52%

6135-5765 (11900)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$38.94

Value

$38.34

PnL

-$0.6

Record

53%

23469-20698 (44167)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$35.2

Value

$34.8

PnL

-$0.4

Record

58%

15784-11478 (27262)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$32.3

Value

$33.06

PnL

+$0.76

Record

46%

9372-11125 (20497)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.22

Value

$20.22

PnL

-$2.33

Record

55%

3175-2632 (5807)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$8.7

Value

$8.7

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

10328-11796 (22124)

ndb1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$2.6

PnL

+$0.3

Record

64%

1050-593 (1643)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.32

Value

$2.32

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

21138-15369 (36507)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 89%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-36 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

58h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance13.0%

11.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$666.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

766.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.