Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 79¢ · $5K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$5.5K
$159.69
75.1¢ → 78.5¢
+5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
917h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1N 1nvoker1 | Noavg 75¢ | $4.3K | $4.5K | +$204.66 | — |
32 328.400.fundCTR | Yesavg 22.5¢ | $810.88 | $774.27 | -$36.61 | — |
 Tenebrus7<$100 | Noavg 81.9¢ | $65.67 | $62.94 | -$2.73 | — |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $60.32 | $49.88 | -$10.44 | — |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 77.5¢ | $39.08 | $39.56 | +$0.48 | — |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $16.2 | $19.35 | +$3.15 | — |
 HorribleWork<$100 | Noavg 73.6¢ | $17.87 | $19.05 | +$1.19 | — |
Invested
$4,322.15
Value
$4.5K
PnL
+$204.66
Record
—
Invested
$810.88
Value
$774.27
PnL
-$36.61
Record
—
Tenebrus7<$100Invested
$65.67
Value
$62.94
PnL
-$2.73
Record
—
Invested
$60.32
Value
$49.88
PnL
-$10.44
Record
—
Invested
$39.08
Value
$39.56
PnL
+$0.48
Record
—
Invested
$16.2
Value
$19.35
PnL
+$3.15
Record
—
HorribleWork<$100Invested
$17.87
Value
$19.05
PnL
+$1.19
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.