Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (74%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 3%-6%?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 26¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 88%
$1.2K
$57.58
24.3¢ → 26¢
+7% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 26%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 74%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+2 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 44%
Freshness
Late
463h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
4 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 44% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ImbaferCTR | Yesavg 23¢ | $207 | $238.5 | +$22.5 | 56% 238-189 (427) |
 smellyEllieCTR | Yesavg 24.4¢ | $187.56 | $203.79 | +$8.54 | 50% 969-986 (1955) |
AN AnonymousUsername | Noavg 76¢ | $151.24 | $188.42 | -$3.55 | 72% 6827-2621 (9448) |
SB sbimbgCTR | Yesavg 27¢ | $170.8 | $167.64 | -$3.16 | 70% 3189-1369 (4558) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 25.6¢ | $160.91 | $162.78 | +$1.86 | 36% 16059-28074 (44133) |
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR | Yesavg 24.7¢ | $96.85 | $103.79 | +$6.93 | 38% 20-32 (52) |
CO cocococococoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $49.92 | $73.5 | +$23.58 | 52% 1665-1535 (3200) |
 bernardbulletinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $44.24 | $46.89 | +$0.88 | 69% 987-450 (1437) |
ImbaferCTRInvested
$207
Value
$238.5
PnL
+$22.5
Record
56%
238-189 (427)
smellyEllieCTRInvested
$187.56
Value
$203.79
PnL
+$8.54
Record
50%
969-986 (1955)
Invested
$151.24
Value
$188.42
PnL
-$3.55
Record
72%
6827-2621 (9448)
Invested
$170.8
Value
$167.64
PnL
-$3.16
Record
70%
3189-1369 (4558)
Invested
$160.91
Value
$162.78
PnL
+$1.86
Record
36%
16059-28074 (44133)
Invested
$96.85
Value
$103.79
PnL
+$6.93
Record
38%
20-32 (52)
Invested
$49.92
Value
$73.5
PnL
+$23.58
Record
52%
1665-1535 (3200)
bernardbulletinCTR<$100Invested
$44.24
Value
$46.89
PnL
+$0.88
Record
69%
987-450 (1437)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
26.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.