Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (75%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-22 House seat?
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 26¢ · $558 held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
No
8
No 38%
$558.03
-$191.48
55.7¢ → 25.5¢
-54% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 26%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Late
726h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
27 consensus flips
38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ME Melody626 | Yesavg 74¢ | $149.21 | $150.21 | +$1.01 | 58% 705-521 (1226) |
CO cowcatCTR | Noavg 57.3¢ | $312.87 | $149.94 | -$162.93 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
11 11122<$100 | Yesavg 57.7¢ | $61.78 | $79.18 | +$17.94 | 44% 1401-1817 (3218) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Yesavg 55.8¢ | $74.83 | $53.36 | +$3.27 | 76% 11352-3524 (14876) |
HO HotDogsCTR | Noavg 56¢ | $112 | $50 | -$61 | 94% 442-28 (470) |
IM immanuelcan<$100 | Yesavg 55¢ | $58.38 | $37.85 | +$9.67 | 53% 906-789 (1695) |
PI pieped<$100 | Yesavg 72¢ | $29.18 | $29.99 | +$1.01 | 42% 71-100 (171) |
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100 | Noavg 27¢ | $8.1 | $7.5 | -$0.45 | 52% 2050-1868 (3918) |
Invested
$149.21
Value
$150.21
PnL
+$1.01
Record
58%
705-521 (1226)
Invested
$312.87
Value
$149.94
PnL
-$162.93
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Invested
$61.78
Value
$79.18
PnL
+$17.94
Record
44%
1401-1817 (3218)
Invested
$74.83
Value
$53.36
PnL
+$3.27
Record
76%
11352-3524 (14876)
Invested
$112
Value
$50
PnL
-$61
Record
94%
442-28 (470)
Invested
$58.38
Value
$37.85
PnL
+$9.67
Record
53%
906-789 (1695)
Invested
$29.18
Value
$29.99
PnL
+$1.01
Record
42%
71-100 (171)
Invested
$8.1
Value
$7.5
PnL
-$0.45
Record
52%
2050-1868 (3918)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
25.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.