Will the Democratic Party win the FL-27 House seat?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 63¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$1.6K
-$153.71
72.7¢ → 62.5¢
-14% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 61%
Freshness
Late
726h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
6 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JA JAMJAMJAM4 | Noavg 67¢ | $14.64 | $341.25 | -$24.57 | 73% 3600-1329 (4929) |
PI piepedCTR | Yesavg 37¢ | $324.56 | $328.95 | +$4.39 | 42% 71-100 (171) |
 Seutervoinen | Noavg 84¢ | $420.25 | $298.66 | -$105.13 | 85% 311-57 (368) |
 BigRabbitCTR | Yesavg 34¢ | $170 | $187.5 | +$17.5 | 40% 704-1061 (1765) |
PE peepeepooppoop | Noavg 62¢ | $126 | $125 | -$1 | 52% 2050-1868 (3918) |
CO cowcat | Noavg 76¢ | $149.4 | $122.86 | -$26.54 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
LI lineth | Noavg 72¢ | $138.2 | $120 | -$19.16 | 41% 245-350 (595) |
SB sbimbg<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $32.45 | $33.24 | +$0.8 | 70% 3189-1369 (4558) |
Invested
$14.64
Value
$341.25
PnL
-$24.57
Record
73%
3600-1329 (4929)
Invested
$324.56
Value
$328.95
PnL
+$4.39
Record
42%
71-100 (171)
SeutervoinenInvested
$420.25
Value
$298.66
PnL
-$105.13
Record
85%
311-57 (368)
BigRabbitCTRInvested
$170
Value
$187.5
PnL
+$17.5
Record
40%
704-1061 (1765)
Invested
$126
Value
$125
PnL
-$1
Record
52%
2050-1868 (3918)
Invested
$149.4
Value
$122.86
PnL
-$26.54
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Invested
$138.2
Value
$120
PnL
-$19.16
Record
41%
245-350 (595)
Invested
$32.45
Value
$33.24
PnL
+$0.8
Record
70%
3189-1369 (4558)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.