Will the Democratic Party win the IA-01 House seat?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 93¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 4

Yes93¢No7¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 63%

Total Value

$15.4K

Combined PnL

$2.6K

Smart Money Entry

76.3¢ → 92.5¢

+21% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 93%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes93%

No8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$15.1K

Total Shares16,327

Combined PnL+$2.6K

No3 traders

Total Value$270.27

Total Shares3,604

Combined PnL-$30.03

Yes — 63%No — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Late

685h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

10 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836	Yesavg 71.7¢	$7.8K	$10.0K	+$2.3K	61% 203-132 (335)
scottilicious	Yesavg 83.9¢	$2.3K	$2.5K	+$236.39	82% 945-201 (1146)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Yesavg 92¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$10.44	56% 15371-11922 (27293)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Yesavg 73.3¢	$392.88	$496.19	+$103.31	53% 6689-5886 (12575)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR	Noavg 7.7¢	$210.16	$204.15	-$5.95	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
Seutervoinen	Yesavg 72¢	$127.23	$163.46	+$36.23	85% 311-57 (368)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Noavg 6.2¢	$96.04	$43.53	-$13.54	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Noavg 11¢	$33.12	$22.58	-$10.54	45% 1905-2348 (4253)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836

Yes

Invested

$7,771.65

Value

$10.0K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

61%

203-132 (335)

scottilicious

Yes

Invested

$2,306.12

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$236.39

Record

82%

945-201 (1146)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Yes

Invested

$1,866.47

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$10.44

Record

56%

15371-11922 (27293)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Yes

Invested

$392.88

Value

$496.19

PnL

+$103.31

Record

53%

6689-5886 (12575)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR

Invested

$210.16

Value

$204.15

PnL

-$5.95

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

Seutervoinen

Yes

Invested

$127.23

Value

$163.46

PnL

+$36.23

Record

85%

311-57 (368)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Invested

$96.04

Value

$43.53

PnL

-$13.54

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

123987456CTR<$100

Invested

$33.12

Value

$22.58

PnL

-$10.54

Record

45%

1905-2348 (4253)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 93%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Late

685h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

10 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.7%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.