Will the Democratic Party win the MN-01 House seat?

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 64¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 4

Yes37¢No63¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 38%

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

$86.14

Smart Money Entry

63.8¢ → 63.5¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares3,368

Combined PnL-$10.11

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares4,265

Combined PnL+$96.24

No — 38%Yes — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

1509h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

14 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ME Melody626	Noavg 62¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$41.28	58% 705-521 (1226)
BigRabbitCTR	Yesavg 33.3¢	$833.71	$925.11	+$78.9	40% 704-1061 (1765)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR	Yesavg 27.8¢	$297.15	$395.89	+$93.39	47% 4649-5169 (9818)
SN SnapElectionAvoider	Noavg 70.7¢	$417.65	$375.39	-$42.26	53% 1174-1056 (2230)
AB ABC12345654321CTR	Yesavg 36.5¢	$673.76	$232.37	-$75.69	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
CO cowcat<$100	Noavg 72.4¢	$73.36	$64.25	-$9.12	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yesavg 24.5¢	$11.36	$15.86	+$4.5	40% 174-265 (439)
IM immanuelcanCTR<$100	Yesavg 57¢	$2.85	$8.79	-$4.87	53% 906-789 (1695)

Melody626

Invested

$1,661.49

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$41.28

Record

58%

705-521 (1226)

BigRabbitCTR

Yes

Invested

$833.71

Value

$925.11

PnL

+$78.9

Record

40%

704-1061 (1765)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR

Yes

Invested

$297.15

Value

$395.89

PnL

+$93.39

Record

47%

4649-5169 (9818)

SnapElectionAvoider

Invested

$417.65

Value

$375.39

PnL

-$42.26

Record

53%

1174-1056 (2230)

ABC12345654321CTR

Yes

Invested

$673.76

Value

$232.37

PnL

-$75.69

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

cowcat<$100

Invested

$73.36

Value

$64.25

PnL

-$9.12

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.36

Value

$15.86

PnL

+$4.5

Record

40%

174-265 (439)

immanuelcanCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.85

Value

$8.79

PnL

-$4.87

Record

53%

906-789 (1695)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

1509h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

14 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.4%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.