Will the Democratic Party win the MO-05 House seat?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 97¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 5

Yes97¢No3¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$11.2K

Combined PnL

$902.12

Smart Money Entry

88.4¢ → 97.2¢

+10% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes97%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$11.1K

Total Shares11,446

Combined PnL+$1.0K

No2 traders

Total Value$51.34

Total Shares1,867

Combined PnL-$107.78

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

267h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN anoin123	Yesavg 91.8¢	$6.6K	$6.3K	+$343.18	47% 474-534 (1008)
mrworldwide	Yesavg 86.3¢	$2.5K	$2.8K	+$317.31	69% 804-359 (1163)
FU Fulgurator	Yesavg 91.7¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$63.44	92% 61-5 (66)
FL FlyingPlaty	Yesavg 95.8¢	$441.46	$448.19	+$6.27	98% 982-16 (998)
CO cowcat	Yesavg 19.1¢	$53.38	$332.6	+$279.22	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
OL OLOTH	Yesavg 96.9¢	$125.95	$126.43	+$0.49	96% 757-31 (788)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Noavg 9.4¢	$152.06	$49.18	-$102.88	53% 6689-5886 (12575)
HO HourglassCTR<$100	Noavg 11.3¢	$7.06	$2.16	-$4.9	77% 8889-2658 (11547)

anoin123

Yes

Invested

$6,555

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$343.18

Record

47%

474-534 (1008)

mrworldwide

Yes

Invested

$2,492.81

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$317.31

Record

69%

804-359 (1163)

Fulgurator

Yes

Invested

$1,053.82

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$63.44

Record

92%

61-5 (66)

FlyingPlaty

Yes

Invested

$441.46

Value

$448.19

PnL

+$6.27

Record

98%

982-16 (998)

cowcat

Yes

Invested

$53.38

Value

$332.6

PnL

+$279.22

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

OLOTH

Yes

Invested

$125.95

Value

$126.43

PnL

+$0.49

Record

96%

757-31 (788)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Invested

$152.06

Value

$49.18

PnL

-$102.88

Record

53%

6689-5886 (12575)

HourglassCTR<$100

Invested

$7.06

Value

$2.16

PnL

-$4.9

Record

77%

8889-2658 (11547)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

267h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.2%

97.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.