Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (53%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 47¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 4

Yes47¢No53¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$12.6K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

41.1¢ → 47¢

+14% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 53%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes47%

No53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$10.3K

Total Shares22,280

Combined PnL+$1.3K

No2 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares4,292

Combined PnL-$167.83

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ME Melody626CTR	Yesavg 45.9¢	$5.5K	$5.5K	+$131.22	58% 705-521 (1226)
BigMackyG	Noavg 56.9¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	-$167.58	20% 108-423 (531)
ChungvicularCTR	Yesavg 35.7¢	$1.7K	$2.2K	+$530.65	46% 49-57 (106)
BigRabbitCTR	Yesavg 30.6¢	$764.92	$1.1K	+$409.97	40% 704-1061 (1765)
ScottyNoooCTR	Yesavg 35.3¢	$566.19	$736.97	+$187.23	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR	Yesavg 43.5¢	$617.69	$667.52	+$49.83	38% 20-32 (52)
RL RLWG<$100	Noavg 54¢	$13.5	$13.5	-$0.25	50% 7969-8009 (15978)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$1.55	$2.3	+$0.8	47% 4649-5169 (9818)

Melody626CTR

Yes

Invested

$5,533.52

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$131.22

Record

58%

705-521 (1226)

BigMackyG

Invested

$2,428.9

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$167.58

Record

20%

108-423 (531)

ChungvicularCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,677.98

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$530.65

Record

46%

49-57 (106)

BigRabbitCTR

Yes

Invested

$764.92

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$409.97

Record

40%

704-1061 (1765)

ScottyNoooCTR

Yes

Invested

$566.19

Value

$736.97

PnL

+$187.23

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR

Yes

Invested

$617.69

Value

$667.52

PnL

+$49.83

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

RLWG<$100

Invested

$13.5

Value

$13.5

PnL

-$0.25

Record

50%

7969-8009 (15978)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.55

Value

$2.3

PnL

+$0.8

Record

47%

4649-5169 (9818)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 47%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 53%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.0%

47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$104.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

204.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.