Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 77¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$5.5K
$1.4K
72.3¢ → 77.2¢
+7% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Late
4874h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 14.9¢ | $1.1K | $1.7K | +$599.32 | 53% 1174-1056 (2230) |
 zxdfbdfgngcxv | Noavg 67.9¢ | $1.4K | $1.6K | +$189.12 | 82% 1758-394 (2152) |
HE HerrieDavisCTR | Yesavg 12.2¢ | $663.3 | $1.2K | +$579.4 | 36% 2085-3721 (5806) |
12 123987456 | Noavg 79.8¢ | $521.59 | $504.44 | -$17.15 | 45% 1905-2348 (4253) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 73.7¢ | $198.29 | $216.92 | +$18.63 | 53% 6689-5886 (12575) |
TT tttt123 | Noavg 88¢ | $175.39 | $155.46 | -$21.53 | 72% 1535-585 (2120) |
 LinaBell<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $35.86 | $31.5 | -$4.36 | 64% 1197-678 (1875) |
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $0.61 | $13.27 | +$13.45 | 33% 6263-12990 (19253) |
Invested
$1,137.61
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$599.32
Record
53%
1174-1056 (2230)
zxdfbdfgngcxvInvested
$1,400.81
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$189.12
Record
82%
1758-394 (2152)
Invested
$663.3
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$579.4
Record
36%
2085-3721 (5806)
Invested
$521.59
Value
$504.44
PnL
-$17.15
Record
45%
1905-2348 (4253)
Invested
$198.29
Value
$216.92
PnL
+$18.63
Record
53%
6689-5886 (12575)
Invested
$175.39
Value
$155.46
PnL
-$21.53
Record
72%
1535-585 (2120)
LinaBell<$100Invested
$35.86
Value
$31.5
PnL
-$4.36
Record
64%
1197-678 (1875)
Invested
$0.61
Value
$13.27
PnL
+$13.45
Record
33%
6263-12990 (19253)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.