Will the Democrats win Tarrant County in the Texas Senate race in 2026?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 95¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 3
🔬
Research candidate
Yes
8
Yes 75%
$7.5K
$416.96
89.4¢ → 94.8¢
+6% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
Research candidateYes at 95%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Late
682h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836 | Yesavg 84.4¢ | $2.3K | $2.6K | +$285.6 | 61% 203-132 (335) |
 scottilicious | Yesavg 92¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | +$74.93 | 82% 945-201 (1146) |
 mrworldwide | Yesavg 92.8¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$42.3 | 69% 804-359 (1163) |
 perfectnostalgia | Yesavg 88¢ | $155.42 | $167.43 | +$12.01 | 55% 338-273 (611) |
CO Contestable-Parfait | Yesavg 88.7¢ | $141.91 | $151.67 | +$9.76 | 38% 20-32 (52) |
 bernardbulletin<$100 | Yesavg 89.1¢ | $26.73 | $28.44 | +$1.58 | 69% 987-450 (1437) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Noavg 8¢ | $26.4 | $17.16 | -$9.24 | 45% 1905-2348 (4253) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Noavg 5¢ | $0.81 | $0.85 | +$0.03 | 47% 2036-2278 (4314) |
Invested
$2,328.51
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$285.6
Record
61%
203-132 (335)
scottiliciousInvested
$2,461.92
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$74.93
Record
82%
945-201 (1146)
mrworldwideInvested
$1,956.53
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$42.3
Record
69%
804-359 (1163)
perfectnostalgiaInvested
$155.42
Value
$167.43
PnL
+$12.01
Record
55%
338-273 (611)
Invested
$141.91
Value
$151.67
PnL
+$9.76
Record
38%
20-32 (52)
bernardbulletin<$100Invested
$26.73
Value
$28.44
PnL
+$1.58
Record
69%
987-450 (1437)
Invested
$26.4
Value
$17.16
PnL
-$9.24
Record
45%
1905-2348 (4253)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$0.81
Value
$0.85
PnL
+$0.03
Record
47%
2036-2278 (4314)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.