Will the Democrats win the Alabama Senate race in 2026?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 98¢ · $897 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$897.24
$1.9
97.7¢ → 98.4¢
+1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Late
674h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QM QMG-CORE | Noavg 97.7¢ | $633.3 | $633.3 | +$2.59 | 77% 1408-416 (1824) |
 yen4u<$100 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $98.3 | $97.7 | +$0.25 | 86% 807-136 (943) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $44.5 | $44.01 | -$0.48 | 76% 11352-3524 (14876) |
 Talophex<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $32.33 | $32.57 | +$0.42 | 91% 929-95 (1024) |
 probability<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $30 | $30.53 | +$0.7 | 42% 1368-1924 (3292) |
IN insidero<$100 | Noavg 97.7¢ | $27.91 | $27.91 | +$0 | 76% 291-93 (384) |
DE dedidanc<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $21.85 | $22.47 | +$0.92 | 57% 103-77 (180) |
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $10 | $8.75 | -$2.5 | 52% 2050-1868 (3918) |
Invested
$633.3
Value
$633.3
PnL
+$2.59
Record
77%
1408-416 (1824)
yen4u<$100Invested
$98.3
Value
$97.7
PnL
+$0.25
Record
86%
807-136 (943)
Invested
$44.5
Value
$44.01
PnL
-$0.48
Record
76%
11352-3524 (14876)
Talophex<$100Invested
$32.33
Value
$32.57
PnL
+$0.42
Record
91%
929-95 (1024)
probability<$100Invested
$30
Value
$30.53
PnL
+$0.7
Record
42%
1368-1924 (3292)
Invested
$27.91
Value
$27.91
PnL
+$0
Record
76%
291-93 (384)
Invested
$21.85
Value
$22.47
PnL
+$0.92
Record
57%
103-77 (180)
Invested
$10
Value
$8.75
PnL
-$2.5
Record
52%
2050-1868 (3918)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.