Will the Democrats win the New Jersey Senate race in 2026?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 99¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 4

Yes99¢No1¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 88%

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

$51.62

Smart Money Entry

97.7¢ → 99¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares5,166

Combined PnL+$70.32

No1 trader

Total Value$20.89

Total Shares2,321

Combined PnL-$18.69

Yes — 88%No — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

1798h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 7

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI Vilgefortz	Yesavg 98.7¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$10.27	71% 196-82 (278)
elmcap2	Yesavg 97.5¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$31.92	89% 1665-205 (1870)
Ryxon21	Yesavg 95¢	$313.25	$326.44	+$13.02	71% 318-130 (448)
TH TheFOMCGambler	Yesavg 94¢	$188	$247.5	+$13.75	76% 102-32 (134)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 98.6¢	$65.62	$65.9	+$0.28	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
HO HotDogs<$100	Yesavg 97.4¢	$38.96	$39.6	+$0.68	94% 442-28 (470)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Noavg 1.9¢	$43.09	$20.89	-$18.69	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
bernardbulletin<$100	Yesavg 95¢	$9.52	$9.92	+$0.39	69% 987-450 (1437)

Vilgefortz

Yes

Invested

$2,368.16

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$10.27

Record

71%

196-82 (278)

elmcap2

Yes

Invested

$2,069.86

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$31.92

Record

89%

1665-205 (1870)

Ryxon21

Yes

Invested

$313.25

Value

$326.44

PnL

+$13.02

Record

71%

318-130 (448)

TheFOMCGambler

Yes

Invested

$188

Value

$247.5

PnL

+$13.75

Record

76%

102-32 (134)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$65.62

Value

$65.9

PnL

+$0.28

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

HotDogs<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.96

Value

$39.6

PnL

+$0.68

Record

94%

442-28 (470)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Invested

$43.09

Value

$20.89

PnL

-$18.69

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

bernardbulletin<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.52

Value

$9.92

PnL

+$0.39

Record

69%

987-450 (1437)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

1798h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 7

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.