Consensus PnL $368K · win rate 77% (191–58, n=249) · PM monthly #782 · holds 15 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$368.1K
Record
191W / 58L
Win Rate
77.0%
of 249 settled
Batting Avg
60.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#522
Source
PM monthly #782
Trades
2,514
Markets
356
Volume
$8.1M
Top consensus positions
15 in listed consensus markets · 13 of 15 on the consensus side (87%)- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo $29K · now 96¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (72% of 72)
- Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?Yes $18K · now 98¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (57% of 23)
- Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?Yes $14K · now 98¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (96% of 23)
- Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes $12K · now 99¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (91% of 47)
- Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?Yes $11K · now 99¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (75% of 16)
- Will the Republicans win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026?Yes $9.0K · now 94¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (88% of 8)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $8.4K · now 84¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
- Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $7.7K · now 20¢ · in at 21¢with the consensus (94% of 34)
Specialties
316 settled consensus markets · held side won 78% at an average entry of 78¢- Economy
+2 pts
side won 79% of 56 · avg entry 76¢
ROI +6%
- Finance
+11 pts
side won 100% of 11 · avg entry 89¢
ROI +6%
- Elections
+4 pts
side won 76% of 25 · avg entry 72¢
ROI +2%
Weakest: Politics — held side won 83% of 63 at an average 84¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 14%(won 14% of 44)
- 30–50¢: 5%(won 44% of 16)
- 50–70¢: 6%(won 63% of 19)
- 70¢ and up: 75%(won 94% of 237)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.