Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 94¢ · $26K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$25.7K
$3.7K
80.9¢ → 94.4¢
+17% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Late
4925h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
44 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CUTJALENHURTS | Noavg 78.1¢ | $16.8K | $20.3K | +$3.5K | 52% 5926-5526 (11452) |
 Optimus- | Noavg 88.7¢ | $2.6K | $2.8K | +$185.73 | 61% 1201-768 (1969) |
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495 | Noavg 95.8¢ | $1.4K | $2.3K | -$8.42 | 56% 18152-14046 (32198) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 92.9¢ | $214.49 | $217.97 | +$3.25 | 77% 11963-3647 (15610) |
HE HerrieDavis<$100 | Noavg 72.8¢ | $75.25 | $97.45 | +$22.2 | 36% 2155-3860 (6015) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $4.5 | $28 | +$23.5 | 47% 2048-2315 (4363) |
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100 | Yes | $0.9 | $0.9 | +$0.3 | 48% 102-110 (212) |
CUTJALENHURTSInvested
$16,812.98
Value
$20.3K
PnL
+$3.5K
Record
52%
5926-5526 (11452)
Optimus-Invested
$2,573.92
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$185.73
Record
61%
1201-768 (1969)
Invested
$1,370.01
Value
$2.3K
PnL
-$8.42
Record
56%
18152-14046 (32198)
Invested
$214.49
Value
$217.97
PnL
+$3.25
Record
77%
11963-3647 (15610)
Invested
$75.25
Value
$97.45
PnL
+$22.2
Record
36%
2155-3860 (6015)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$4.5
Value
$28
PnL
+$23.5
Record
47%
2048-2315 (4363)
Invested
$0.9
Value
$0.9
PnL
+$0.3
Record
48%
102-110 (212)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.