Consensus PnL $1.1M · win rate 51% (28–27, n=55) · was PM monthly #935 · holds 7 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$1.1M
Record
28W / 27L
Win Rate
51.0%
of 55 settled
Batting Avg
64.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1719
Source
PM monthly #935
Trades
1,130
Markets
129
Volume
$15.8M
Top consensus positions
7 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 7 on the consensus side (43%)- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $167K · now 65¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (67% of 133)
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?No $76K · now 30¢ · in at 16¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $21K · now 6¢ · in at 7¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Yes $14K · now 28¢ · in at 23¢with the consensus (69% of 31)
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $7.0K · now 16¢ · in at 9¢with the consensus (82% of 33)
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Yes $2.2K · now 1¢ · in at 1¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?Yes $863 · now 0¢ · in at 0¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
72 settled consensus markets · held side won 65% at an average entry of 65¢- Economy
+6 pts
side won 88% of 17 · avg entry 82¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 89% of 18 at an average 92¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 28%(won 5% of 20)
- 30–50¢: 8%(won 33% of 6)
- 50–70¢: 4%(won 100% of 3)
- 70¢ and up: 60%(won 95% of 43)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.