Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (76%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 25¢ · $21K held · ends Jan 28, 2027

Yes25¢No75¢Ends Thu, Jan 28, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 63%

Total Value

$20.7K

Combined PnL

$-6.2K

Smart Money Entry

31.9¢ → 24.5¢

-23% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors No 76%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes25%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$19.9K

Total Shares86,617

Combined PnL$-6.2K

No3 traders

Total Value$761.76

Total Shares998

Combined PnL+$61.4

Yes — 63%No — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

1034h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

9 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CD CDAP1CTR	Yesavg 32¢	$21.4K	$16.2K	$-5.2K	30% 11-26 (37)
RememberAmalekCTR	Yesavg 32¢	$3.9K	$3.1K	-$854.57	56% 973-770 (1743)
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR	Yesavg 30¢	$857.14	$657.14	-$157.14	39% 1781-2832 (4613)
LI lissartter	Noavg 67.2¢	$425.7	$478.19	+$52.49	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 68.4¢	$260.46	$268.72	+$8.26	56% 15372-11923 (27295)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$48.6	$31.05	-$15.53	32% 4495-9638 (14133)
FO forgetfuldory<$100	Noavg 63.3¢	$14.12	$14.85	+$0.65	— 5-5 (10)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$8.19	$6.85	-$1.34	39% 175-269 (444)

CDAP1CTR

Yes

Invested

$21,364.36

Value

$16.2K

PnL

$-5.2K

Record

30%

11-26 (37)

RememberAmalekCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,871.76

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$854.57

Record

56%

973-770 (1743)

BikesAreTheBikesCTR

Yes

Invested

$857.14

Value

$657.14

PnL

-$157.14

Record

39%

1781-2832 (4613)

lissartter

Invested

$425.7

Value

$478.19

PnL

+$52.49

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$260.46

Value

$268.72

PnL

+$8.26

Record

56%

15372-11923 (27295)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.6

Value

$31.05

PnL

-$15.53

Record

32%

4495-9638 (14133)

forgetfuldory<$100

Invested

$14.12

Value

$14.85

PnL

+$0.65

Record

—

5-5 (10)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.19

Value

$6.85

PnL

-$1.34

Record

39%

175-269 (444)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors No 76%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

1034h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

9 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance26.4%

24.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$278.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

378.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.