Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (88%). 2 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?
2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 13¢ · $1K held
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 25%
$1.1K
-$636.12
49.3¢ → 12.5¢
-75% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 13%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 88%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
721h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
28 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Contentious-Dinnerdate | Noavg 61¢ | $188.39 | $287.88 | +$99.49 | 50% 415-417 (832) |
 XenyCTR | Yesavg 34.9¢ | $592.46 | $208.2 | -$359.23 | 60% 978-662 (1640) |
0X 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876 | Noavg 26.9¢ | $37.67 | $201.9 | +$164.22 | 45% 112-138 (250) |
 libratus1CTR | Yesavg 71.7¢ | $769.34 | $133.73 | -$635.61 | 63% 642-372 (1014) |
HI hithitfar | Noavg 73.8¢ | $100.08 | $112.49 | +$12.4 | 58% 640-469 (1109) |
 0xdc3E831cad | Noavg 51¢ | $54.22 | $106.3 | +$52.08 | 49% 1830-1896 (3726) |
DE dedidanc<$100 | Noavg 30.8¢ | $35.29 | $52.58 | +$17.29 | 57% 103-77 (180) |
 vinii<$100 | Noavg 34.6¢ | $1.44 | $14.67 | +$13.22 | 74% 2792-1004 (3796) |
Contentious-DinnerdateInvested
$188.39
Value
$287.88
PnL
+$99.49
Record
50%
415-417 (832)
XenyCTRInvested
$592.46
Value
$208.2
PnL
-$359.23
Record
60%
978-662 (1640)
Invested
$37.67
Value
$201.9
PnL
+$164.22
Record
45%
112-138 (250)
libratus1CTRInvested
$769.34
Value
$133.73
PnL
-$635.61
Record
63%
642-372 (1014)
Invested
$100.08
Value
$112.49
PnL
+$12.4
Record
58%
640-469 (1109)
0xdc3E831cadInvested
$54.22
Value
$106.3
PnL
+$52.08
Record
49%
1830-1896 (3726)
Invested
$35.29
Value
$52.58
PnL
+$17.29
Record
57%
103-77 (180)
vinii<$100Invested
$1.44
Value
$14.67
PnL
+$13.22
Record
74%
2792-1004 (3796)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
12.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.