Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 83¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes17¢No83¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$652.81

Smart Money Entry

47.8¢ → 82.8¢

+73% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,765

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Yes4 traders

Total Value$199.98

Total Shares920

Combined PnL-$365.44

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Late

229h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DE dedidanc	Noavg 58.6¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$257.36	57% 103-77 (180)
iutwpfal	Noavg 76.6¢	$561.31	$634.05	+$72.74	57% 412-313 (725)
SN SnapElectionAvoider	Noavg 5.4¢	$40.61	$580.11	+$504.8	53% 1174-1056 (2230)
0X 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876	Noavg 20.3¢	$72.12	$273.62	+$183.35	45% 112-138 (250)
Contentious-DinnerdateCTR	Yesavg 86¢	$349.15	$93.78	-$234.66	50% 415-417 (832)
KimchiCapitalCTR	Yesavg 84.4¢	$134.5	$38.37	-$96.12	75% 540-176 (716)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR	Yesavg 23.1¢	$101.08	$37.08	-$24.38	39% 175-269 (444)
HI hithitfarCTR<$100	Yesavg 35.7¢	$27.15	$30.74	-$10.27	58% 640-469 (1109)

dedidanc

Invested

$1,150.11

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$257.36

Record

57%

103-77 (180)

iutwpfal

Invested

$561.31

Value

$634.05

PnL

+$72.74

Record

57%

412-313 (725)

SnapElectionAvoider

Invested

$40.61

Value

$580.11

PnL

+$504.8

Record

53%

1174-1056 (2230)

0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876

Invested

$72.12

Value

$273.62

PnL

+$183.35

Record

45%

112-138 (250)

Contentious-DinnerdateCTR

Yes

Invested

$349.15

Value

$93.78

PnL

-$234.66

Record

50%

415-417 (832)

KimchiCapitalCTR

Yes

Invested

$134.5

Value

$38.37

PnL

-$96.12

Record

75%

540-176 (716)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR

Yes

Invested

$101.08

Value

$37.08

PnL

-$24.38

Record

39%

175-269 (444)

hithitfarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.15

Value

$30.74

PnL

-$10.27

Record

58%

640-469 (1109)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Late

229h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.3%

82.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.56

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.