Will the Philadelphia Eagles make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 93¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 5, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$3.3K
-$89.31
66.9¢ → 92.5¢
+38% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-2 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Late
553h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
4 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AB ABC12345654321 | Noavg 62¢ | $18.6 | $1.7K | +$305.15 | 50% 1695-1680 (3375) |
 macrosteaks | Noavg 73.1¢ | $285.63 | $1.0K | +$148.55 | 55% 3435-2832 (6267) |
 TimeTravelerCTR | Yesavg 19.8¢ | $903.61 | $288.26 | -$615.35 | 41% 2003-2843 (4846) |
0X 0x53eCc53E7 | Noavg 74¢ | $44.4 | $132.7 | +$22.35 | 43% 470-622 (1092) |
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $55.1 | $92.99 | +$37.88 | 54% 1303-1106 (2409) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100 | Noavg 94.7¢ | $81.21 | $67.14 | -$1.69 | 45% 2406-2980 (5386) |
 JustADonk<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $23.99 | $37.79 | +$13.8 | 55% 920-756 (1676) |
Invested
$18.6
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$305.15
Record
50%
1695-1680 (3375)
macrosteaksInvested
$285.63
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$148.55
Record
55%
3435-2832 (6267)
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$903.61
Value
$288.26
PnL
-$615.35
Record
41%
2003-2843 (4846)
Invested
$44.4
Value
$132.7
PnL
+$22.35
Record
43%
470-622 (1092)
Invested
$55.1
Value
$92.99
PnL
+$37.88
Record
54%
1303-1106 (2409)
Invested
$81.21
Value
$67.14
PnL
-$1.69
Record
45%
2406-2980 (5386)
JustADonk<$100Invested
$23.99
Value
$37.79
PnL
+$13.8
Record
55%
920-756 (1676)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.