Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 1.1¢ · $2K held · ends Apr 1, 2027

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Thu, Apr 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

-$27.14

Smart Money Entry

1¢ → 1.1¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares171,339

Combined PnL-$27.31

No4 traders

Total Value$31.48

Total Shares32

Combined PnL+$0.17

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

4826h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

31 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 1¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$36.86	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
TH thebug44CTR	Yesavg 1.1¢	$535.75	$528.21	-$5.97	33% 42-86 (128)
NE neymar1CTR	Yesavg 1.1¢	$180	$173.75	-$6.24	30% 324-771 (1095)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$11.7	$27.55	-$51.95	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$16.47	$16.63	+$0.17	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
DI Diabolical-Prize<$100	Noavg 99¢	$5	$4.95	-$0	48% 175-192 (367)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$4.93	$4.95	+$0.02	42% 2258-3075 (5333)
0X 0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$4.96	$4.95	-$0.01	73% 41-15 (56)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,032.69

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$36.86

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

thebug44CTR

Yes

Invested

$535.75

Value

$528.21

PnL

-$5.97

Record

33%

42-86 (128)

neymar1CTR

Yes

Invested

$180

Value

$173.75

PnL

-$6.24

Record

30%

324-771 (1095)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.7

Value

$27.55

PnL

-$51.95

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

wokerjoesleeper<$100

Invested

$16.47

Value

$16.63

PnL

+$0.17

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

Diabolical-Prize<$100

Invested

Value

$4.95

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

175-192 (367)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000<$100

Invested

$4.93

Value

$4.95

PnL

+$0.02

Record

42%

2258-3075 (5333)

0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100

Invested

$4.96

Value

$4.95

PnL

-$0.01

Record

73%

41-15 (56)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

4826h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

31 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.2%

1.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4550.30

Max Loss

-$100.00

4650.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.