Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina Senate election by 10%-15%?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 100¢ · $521 held · ended Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$521.14

Combined PnL

-$2.12

Smart Money Entry

93.9¢ → 99.8¢

+6% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$520.38

Total Shares521

Combined PnL+$17.79

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0.75

Total Shares377

Combined PnL-$19.91

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 96.4¢	$381.04	$381.28	+$0.24	45% 2914-3563 (6477)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 85.8¢	$69.15	$79.83	+$10.68	53% 23170-20401 (43571)
BR BreakTheBank<$100	Noavg 90.1¢	$44.5	$49.3	+$4.79	42% 630-874 (1504)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 79¢	$7.9	$9.98	+$2.08	49% 8980-9510 (18490)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.2¢	$14.44	$0.67	-$13.77	59% 3795-2636 (6431)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.9¢	$23.42	$0.05	-$2.98	69% 7195-3179 (10374)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$3.2	$0.04	-$3.16	20% 2785-10964 (13749)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$381.04

Value

$381.28

PnL

+$0.24

Record

45%

2914-3563 (6477)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$69.15

Value

$79.83

PnL

+$10.68

Record

53%

23170-20401 (43571)

BreakTheBank<$100

Invested

$44.5

Value

$49.3

PnL

+$4.79

Record

42%

630-874 (1504)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$7.9

Value

$9.98

PnL

+$2.08

Record

49%

8980-9510 (18490)

shiifooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.44

Value

$0.67

PnL

-$13.77

Record

59%

3795-2636 (6431)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.42

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$2.98

Record

69%

7195-3179 (10374)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.2

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$3.16

Record

20%

2785-10964 (13749)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.