Will the Republican Party win the AZ-05 House seat?
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (29%) · Yes at 96¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 29%
$9.0K
$4.1K
43.7¢ → 95.5¢
+119% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-4 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
73h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
29% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SO soapbubbles | Yesavg 31.3¢ | $2.1K | $6.3K | +$3.9K | 68% 23-11 (34) |
 clazzy1 | Yesavg 75.4¢ | $2.0K | $2.5K | +$382.6 | 65% 500-275 (775) |
PE peepeepooppoopCTR | Noavg 8.2¢ | $621.22 | $183.7 | -$78.31 | 51% 2575-2507 (5082) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR | Noavg 43.8¢ | $140.2 | $32.02 | -$108.18 | 45% 2963-3662 (6625) |
 thanksforplayinCTR<$100 | Noavg 21.8¢ | $15.54 | $5.19 | -$10.35 | 56% 689-551 (1240) |
GA GaditimaCTR | Noavg 4.5¢ | $406.28 | $3.39 | -$0.87 | 48% 7370-8076 (15446) |
PO PoligarchCTR<$100 | Noavg 28¢ | $33.21 | $0.06 | -$1.21 | 54% 10546-9124 (19670) |
Invested
$2,068.56
Value
$6.3K
PnL
+$3.9K
Record
68%
23-11 (34)
clazzy1Invested
$1,953.32
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$382.6
Record
65%
500-275 (775)
Invested
$621.22
Value
$183.7
PnL
-$78.31
Record
51%
2575-2507 (5082)
Invested
$140.2
Value
$32.02
PnL
-$108.18
Record
45%
2963-3662 (6625)
thanksforplayinCTR<$100Invested
$15.54
Value
$5.19
PnL
-$10.35
Record
56%
689-551 (1240)
Invested
$406.28
Value
$3.39
PnL
-$0.87
Record
48%
7370-8076 (15446)
Invested
$33.21
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$1.21
Record
54%
10546-9124 (19670)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.