Consensus PnL $27K · win rate 66% (23–12, n=35) · PM monthly #904 · holds 18 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$27.5K
Record
23W / 12L
Win Rate
66.0%
of 35 settled
Batting Avg
55.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#624
Source
PM monthly #904
Record (90 d)
5/6 · 83%
Trades
335
Markets
57
Volume
$112.7K
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Top consensus positions
18 in listed consensus markets · 11 of 18 on the consensus side (61%)- Will the Republican Party win the AZ-05 House seat?Yes $6.2K · now 94¢ · in at 31¢with the consensus (40% of 11)
- Will the Republican Party win the AZ-02 House seat?Yes $3.9K · now 74¢ · in at 46¢with the consensus (44% of 32)
- Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-02 House seat?No $3.7K · now 75¢ · in at 39¢with the consensus (48% of 32)
- Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes $2.0K · now 91¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (64% of 51)
- Will the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat?No $2.0K · now 100¢ · in at 24¢with the consensus (51% of 39)
- Will the Democratic Party win the NC-09 House seat?Yes $1.9K · now 99¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (56% of 41)
- Will the Democratic Party win the TN-04 House seat?Yes $1.0K · now 95¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (63% of 24)
- Will the Democratic Party win the VA-01 House seat?Yes $988 · now 96¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (67% of 39)
Specialties
17 settled consensus markets · held side won 82% at an average entry of 77¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where soapbubbles's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 6%(won 0% of 1)
- 30–50¢: 18%(won 100% of 3)
- 50–70¢: 6%(won 0% of 1)
- 70¢ and up: 71%(won 92% of 12)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.