Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (52%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the Republican Party win the ME-02 House seat?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 49¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 4

Yes52¢No48¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$183.34

Smart Money Entry

44.9¢ → 48.5¢

+8% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes52%

No49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares5,818

Combined PnL+$208.18

Yes4 traders

Total Value$444.35

Total Shares855

Combined PnL-$24.84

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Late

280h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ME Melody626CTR	Noavg 48¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$11.99	58% 705-521 (1226)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Noavg 44.4¢	$743.89	$813.96	+$70.07	53% 6689-5886 (12575)
CO cocococococoCTR	Noavg 43¢	$477.73	$533.28	+$61.11	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
GayPrideCTR	Noavg 37.9¢	$229.21	$294.23	+$65.02	49% 357-367 (724)
AB ABC12345654321	Yesavg 53¢	$51.2	$283.58	-$19.26	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
SB sbimbg	Yesavg 52¢	$106.69	$106.69	-$1.03	70% 3189-1369 (4558)
SI singularityman<$100	Yesavg 56¢	$56	$52	-$4.5	42% 138-193 (331)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107<$100	Yesavg 53¢	$2.12	$2.08	-$0.06	50% 2582-2633 (5215)

Melody626CTR

Invested

$1,151.24

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$11.99

Record

58%

705-521 (1226)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Invested

$743.89

Value

$813.96

PnL

+$70.07

Record

53%

6689-5886 (12575)

cocococococoCTR

Invested

$477.73

Value

$533.28

PnL

+$61.11

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

GayPrideCTR

Invested

$229.21

Value

$294.23

PnL

+$65.02

Record

49%

357-367 (724)

ABC12345654321

Yes

Invested

$51.2

Value

$283.58

PnL

-$19.26

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

sbimbg

Yes

Invested

$106.69

Value

$106.69

PnL

-$1.03

Record

70%

3189-1369 (4558)

singularityman<$100

Yes

Invested

$56

Value

$52

PnL

-$4.5

Record

42%

138-193 (331)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.12

Value

$2.08

PnL

-$0.06

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 49%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Late

280h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.5%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$98.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

198.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.