Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (60%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the Republican Party win the MT-01 House seat?

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 41¢ · $887 held · ends Nov 4

Yes41¢No59¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 38%

Total Value

$886.93

Combined PnL

-$125.8

Smart Money Entry

60.8¢ → 40.5¢

-33% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 41%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes41%

No60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$516.29

Total Shares1,275

Combined PnL-$226.92

No5 traders

Total Value$370.64

Total Shares627

Combined PnL+$101.11

Yes — 38%No — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

678h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

5 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AB ABC12345654321CTR	Yesavg 62.2¢	$49.4	$447.52	-$209.23	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
SB sbimbg	Noavg 44.2¢	$207.52	$277.25	+$72.08	70% 3189-1369 (4558)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 32.8¢	$35.87	$65.06	+$29.19	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
CO cowcatCTR<$100	Yesavg 52.7¢	$73.28	$60.35	-$17.41	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 42.9¢	$26.87	$25.78	-$1.09	53% 6689-5886 (12575)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Yesavg 41.8¢	$8.7	$8.42	-$0.28	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
Chungvicular<$100	Noavg 33¢	$1.1	$1.96	+$0.88	46% 49-57 (106)
0X 0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907e<$100	Noavg 54¢	$0.53	$0.59	+$0.06	78% 283-79 (362)

ABC12345654321CTR

Yes

Invested

$49.4

Value

$447.52

PnL

-$209.23

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

sbimbg

Invested

$207.52

Value

$277.25

PnL

+$72.08

Record

70%

3189-1369 (4558)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$35.87

Value

$65.06

PnL

+$29.19

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

cowcatCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$73.28

Value

$60.35

PnL

-$17.41

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$26.87

Value

$25.78

PnL

-$1.09

Record

53%

6689-5886 (12575)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.7

Value

$8.42

PnL

-$0.28

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

Chungvicular<$100

Invested

$1.1

Value

$1.96

PnL

+$0.88

Record

46%

49-57 (106)

0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907e<$100

Invested

$0.53

Value

$0.59

PnL

+$0.06

Record

78%

283-79 (362)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 41%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

678h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

5 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.5%

40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$135.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

235.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.