Will the Republican Party win the NJ-02 House seat?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 69¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 75%
$1.4K
$38.73
69.9¢ → 68.5¢
-2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 59%
Freshness
Late
164h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AB ABC12345654321 | Yesavg 68.2¢ | $579.05 | $476.57 | +$20.85 | 50% 1658-1652 (3310) |
SB sbimbg | Yesavg 65¢ | $229.65 | $240.25 | +$12.37 | 70% 3189-1369 (4558) |
LI lissartter | Yesavg 69¢ | $214.67 | $211.68 | -$3 | 42% 5283-7233 (12516) |
CO cowcat | Yesavg 81¢ | $243 | $204 | -$37.5 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
PI piepedCTR | Noavg 28¢ | $118.45 | $135.37 | +$14.81 | 42% 71-100 (171) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Noavg 32.9¢ | $61.52 | $59.77 | -$1.75 | 76% 11352-3524 (14876) |
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107<$100 | Yesavg 67.3¢ | $45.74 | $46.24 | +$0.84 | 50% 2582-2633 (5215) |
PE peepeepooppoop | Yesavg 70¢ | $366.44 | $35.36 | +$32.11 | 52% 2050-1868 (3918) |
Invested
$579.05
Value
$476.57
PnL
+$20.85
Record
50%
1658-1652 (3310)
Invested
$229.65
Value
$240.25
PnL
+$12.37
Record
70%
3189-1369 (4558)
Invested
$214.67
Value
$211.68
PnL
-$3
Record
42%
5283-7233 (12516)
Invested
$243
Value
$204
PnL
-$37.5
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Invested
$118.45
Value
$135.37
PnL
+$14.81
Record
42%
71-100 (171)
Invested
$61.52
Value
$59.77
PnL
-$1.75
Record
76%
11352-3524 (14876)
Invested
$45.74
Value
$46.24
PnL
+$0.84
Record
50%
2582-2633 (5215)
Invested
$366.44
Value
$35.36
PnL
+$32.11
Record
52%
2050-1868 (3918)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.