Will the Republican Party win the NV-02 House seat?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 63¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 4

Yes63¢No37¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$70.5

Smart Money Entry

65.1¢ → 63¢

-3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes63%

No37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares3,600

Combined PnL-$57.81

No4 traders

Total Value$279.99

Total Shares778

Combined PnL+$128.31

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (5 on No) and the top 1000 (3 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 100% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ME Melody626	Yesavg 63¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$15.5	58% 705-521 (1226)
nicoco89	Yesavg 79.7¢	$318.76	$252.27	-$66.49	65% 1075-583 (1658)
GohstCTR	Noavg 17.9¢	$88	$177.43	+$94.36	49% 738-770 (1508)
CO cowcat<$100	Yesavg 70.6¢	$67.79	$60.48	-$6.83	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
BigRabbitCTR<$100	Noavg 29¢	$44.95	$55.8	+$11.63	40% 704-1061 (1765)
2B9SCTR<$100	Noavg 20¢	$21.2	$38.16	+$18.02	18% 3832-17370 (21202)
flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100	Noavg 19¢	$4.3	$8.6	+$4.3	39% 965-1508 (2473)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$3.73	$3.74	+$0.02	56% 14224-11030 (25254)

Melody626

Yes

Invested

$1,952.31

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$15.5

Record

58%

705-521 (1226)

nicoco89

Yes

Invested

$318.76

Value

$252.27

PnL

-$66.49

Record

65%

1075-583 (1658)

GohstCTR

Invested

$88

Value

$177.43

PnL

+$94.36

Record

49%

738-770 (1508)

cowcat<$100

Yes

Invested

$67.79

Value

$60.48

PnL

-$6.83

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

BigRabbitCTR<$100

Invested

$44.95

Value

$55.8

PnL

+$11.63

Record

40%

704-1061 (1765)

2B9SCTR<$100

Invested

$21.2

Value

$38.16

PnL

+$18.02

Record

18%

3832-17370 (21202)

flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100

Invested

$4.3

Value

$8.6

PnL

+$4.3

Record

39%

965-1508 (2473)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.73

Value

$3.74

PnL

+$0.02

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 63%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (5 on No) and the top 1000 (3 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 100% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.9%

63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.