Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (66%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 35¢ · $21K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes35¢No65¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$21.0K

Combined PnL

$-2.3K

Smart Money Entry

42.1¢ → 34.5¢

-18% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 35%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 66%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes35%

No66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$16.2K

Total Shares46,953

Combined PnL$-3.2K

No4 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares7,399

Combined PnL+$928.23

Yes — 56%No — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

322 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 43.9¢	$15.2K	$12.2K	$-3.0K	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
RD rdba	Noavg 52.8¢	$3.3K	$4.1K	+$792.9	60% 131-88 (219)
LinaBellCTR	Yesavg 34.5¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$1.07	64% 1197-678 (1875)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yesavg 41.4¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$176.92	72% 6830-2625 (9455)
FA failstober	Noavg 52.7¢	$318.93	$396.37	+$77.44	26% 351-985 (1336)
0X 0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704	Noavg 54.8¢	$269.46	$327.5	+$58.05	60% 1348-884 (2232)
SE SemsBree<$100	Noavg 66¢	$19.8	$19.65	-$0.15	72% 21-8 (29)
UN Unifrm313CTR<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$10.5	$10.35	-$0.15	64% 18-10 (28)
oieshfn345CTR<$100	Yesavg 39¢	$7.8	$6.9	-$0.9	57% 1817-1366 (3183)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$15,189.13

Value

$12.2K

PnL

$-3.0K

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

rdba

Invested

$3,309.87

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$792.9

Record

60%

131-88 (219)

LinaBellCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,686.51

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$1.07

Record

64%

1197-678 (1875)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,503.83

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$176.92

Record

72%

6830-2625 (9455)

failstober

Invested

$318.93

Value

$396.37

PnL

+$77.44

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704

Invested

$269.46

Value

$327.5

PnL

+$58.05

Record

60%

1348-884 (2232)

SemsBree<$100

Invested

$19.8

Value

$19.65

PnL

-$0.15

Record

72%

21-8 (29)

Unifrm313CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.5

Value

$10.35

PnL

-$0.15

Record

64%

18-10 (28)

oieshfn345CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.8

Value

$6.9

PnL

-$0.9

Record

57%

1817-1366 (3183)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 35%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 66%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

322 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance36.4%

34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$174.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

274.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.