Will the Republicans win the Connecticut governor race in 2026?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 98¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$1.7K
$109.28
96.9¢ → 97.8¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Late
472h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QM QMG-CORE | Noavg 97¢ | $910.36 | $912.16 | +$8.84 | 77% 1408-416 (1824) |
IN insidero | Noavg 97.2¢ | $486 | $486 | +$0 | 76% 291-93 (384) |
 elmcap2 | Noavg 97¢ | $125 | $122.13 | +$0.88 | 89% 1665-205 (1870) |
CO cowcat | Noavg 95¢ | $98.8 | $101.09 | +$101.66 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
 probability<$100 | Noavg 96.6¢ | $23.27 | $23.42 | +$0.26 | 42% 1368-1924 (3292) |
 bernardbulletin<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $9.52 | $9.74 | +$0.3 | 69% 987-450 (1437) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $3.59 | $6.88 | -$1.81 | 50% 1658-1652 (3310) |
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $3.44 | $3.11 | -$0.85 | 50% 2582-2633 (5215) |
Invested
$910.36
Value
$912.16
PnL
+$8.84
Record
77%
1408-416 (1824)
Invested
$486
Value
$486
PnL
+$0
Record
76%
291-93 (384)
elmcap2Invested
$125
Value
$122.13
PnL
+$0.88
Record
89%
1665-205 (1870)
Invested
$98.8
Value
$101.09
PnL
+$101.66
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
probability<$100Invested
$23.27
Value
$23.42
PnL
+$0.26
Record
42%
1368-1924 (3292)
bernardbulletin<$100Invested
$9.52
Value
$9.74
PnL
+$0.3
Record
69%
987-450 (1437)
Invested
$3.59
Value
$6.88
PnL
-$1.81
Record
50%
1658-1652 (3310)
Invested
$3.44
Value
$3.11
PnL
-$0.85
Record
50%
2582-2633 (5215)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.