Will the Republicans win the Minnesota governor race in 2026?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 98¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 4

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$10.3K

Combined PnL

-$41.78

Smart Money Entry

97.4¢ → 98¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$10.1K

Total Shares10,306

Combined PnL+$47.33

Yes3 traders

Total Value$192.67

Total Shares9,175

Combined PnL-$89.12

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
elmcap2	Noavg 97.5¢	$9.3K	$9.1K	+$52.78	89% 1665-205 (1870)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 96.5¢	$507.1	$510.23	+$3.13	53% 6689-5886 (12575)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 95¢	$211.49	$217.96	+$6.48	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR	Yesavg 2.5¢	$210.17	$179.99	-$33.97	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 95¢	$158.44	$147.15	+$4.46	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
CO cowcat	Noavg 95.3¢	$124.93	$121.35	-$19.51	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
AB ABC12345654321CTR	Yesavg 2.6¢	$114.23	$9.75	-$50.44	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$7.36	$2.93	-$4.71	42% 1368-1924 (3292)

elmcap2

Invested

$9,309.83

Value

$9.1K

PnL

+$52.78

Record

89%

1665-205 (1870)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$507.1

Value

$510.23

PnL

+$3.13

Record

53%

6689-5886 (12575)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$211.49

Value

$217.96

PnL

+$6.48

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR

Yes

Invested

$210.17

Value

$179.99

PnL

-$33.97

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

ghorrock

Invested

$158.44

Value

$147.15

PnL

+$4.46

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

cowcat

Invested

$124.93

Value

$121.35

PnL

-$19.51

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

ABC12345654321CTR

Yes

Invested

$114.23

Value

$9.75

PnL

-$50.44

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.36

Value

$2.93

PnL

-$4.71

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.1%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.