Will the Republicans win the New Mexico governor race in 2026?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 96¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 4

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$43.65

Smart Money Entry

94.1¢ → 96¢

+2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares3,363

Combined PnL+$59.64

Yes2 traders

Total Value$97.15

Total Shares2,369

Combined PnL-$15.99

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

1798h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
elmcap2	Noavg 94.2¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	+$34.83	89% 1665-205 (1870)
QM QMG-CORE	Noavg 92¢	$461.25	$480.5	+$19.25	77% 1408-416 (1824)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 95¢	$271.06	$274.07	+$3.01	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 95.3¢	$282.56	$264.81	+$1.65	53% 6689-5886 (12575)
probability	Noavg 96¢	$208.79	$208.94	-$0.28	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR	Yesavg 4.9¢	$111.89	$94.51	-$17.34	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
HO HotDogs<$100	Noavg 90¢	$18	$19.22	+$1.18	94% 442-28 (470)
NadmiCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$1.29	$2.64	+$1.35	47% 2036-2278 (4314)

elmcap2

Invested

$2,064.6

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$34.83

Record

89%

1665-205 (1870)

QMG-CORE

Invested

$461.25

Value

$480.5

PnL

+$19.25

Record

77%

1408-416 (1824)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$271.06

Value

$274.07

PnL

+$3.01

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$282.56

Value

$264.81

PnL

+$1.65

Record

53%

6689-5886 (12575)

probability

Invested

$208.79

Value

$208.94

PnL

-$0.28

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR

Yes

Invested

$111.89

Value

$94.51

PnL

-$17.34

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

HotDogs<$100

Invested

$18

Value

$19.22

PnL

+$1.18

Record

94%

442-28 (470)

NadmiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.29

Value

$2.64

PnL

+$1.35

Record

47%

2036-2278 (4314)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

1798h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.