Will the Republicans win the Pennsylvania governor race in 2026?

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 98¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 3

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 38%

Total Value

$16.3K

Combined PnL

-$147.33

Smart Money Entry

98.1¢ → 98.4¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$16.2K

Total Shares16,460

Combined PnL+$33.72

Yes5 traders

Total Value$151.93

Total Shares9,208

Combined PnL-$181.05

No — 38%Yes — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

1509h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (5 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QM QMG-CORE	Noavg 98.1¢	$14.7K	$14.7K	+$28.63	77% 1408-416 (1824)
elmcap2	Noavg 98¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	+$5.13	89% 1665-205 (1870)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$59.16	$54.29	-$4.82	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 3.1¢	$95.03	$53.15	-$41.88	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
AB ABC12345654321CTR	Yesavg 1.9¢	$281.42	$22.34	-$130.65	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$19	$16.5	-$2.5	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$6.85	$5.65	-$1.2	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
DEGENKHAN<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$4.96	$4.92	-$0.04	66% 1107-565 (1672)

QMG-CORE

Invested

$14,707.06

Value

$14.7K

PnL

+$28.63

Record

77%

1408-416 (1824)

elmcap2

Invested

$1,465.23

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$5.13

Record

89%

1665-205 (1870)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$59.16

Value

$54.29

PnL

-$4.82

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$95.03

Value

$53.15

PnL

-$41.88

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

ABC12345654321CTR

Yes

Invested

$281.42

Value

$22.34

PnL

-$130.65

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19

Value

$16.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.85

Value

$5.65

PnL

-$1.2

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

DEGENKHAN<$100

Invested

$4.96

Value

$4.92

PnL

-$0.04

Record

66%

1107-565 (1672)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

1509h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (5 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.4%

98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.63

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.