Will the Republicans win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 94¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 4
🔬
Research candidate
Yes
8
Yes 88%
$13.4K
-$9.44
93.7¢ → 94.2¢
+1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
Research candidateYes at 94%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Late
1653h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VI Vilgefortz | Yesavg 94.1¢ | $9.0K | $9.0K | +$4.12 | 71% 196-82 (278) |
 probability | Yesavg 93.2¢ | $929.82 | $939.18 | +$8.37 | 42% 1368-1924 (3292) |
TH TheFOMCGambler | Yesavg 93.2¢ | $917.76 | $927.12 | +$8.87 | 76% 102-32 (134) |
 TBill1 | Yesavg 92¢ | $883.42 | $903.84 | +$19.94 | 45% 154-188 (342) |
 AngryRhino | Yesavg 94.3¢ | $758.76 | $757.91 | -$1.25 | 69% 133-59 (192) |
 WordleAddict | Yesavg 91.7¢ | $316.02 | $324.46 | +$8.44 | 61% 941-614 (1555) |
 bernardbulletinCTR | Noavg 7¢ | $388.5 | $322.47 | -$63.26 | 69% 987-450 (1437) |
IM immanuelcan | Yesavg 91.8¢ | $18.35 | $174.65 | +$5.33 | 53% 906-789 (1695) |
Invested
$9,029.64
Value
$9.0K
PnL
+$4.12
Record
71%
196-82 (278)
probabilityInvested
$929.82
Value
$939.18
PnL
+$8.37
Record
42%
1368-1924 (3292)
Invested
$917.76
Value
$927.12
PnL
+$8.87
Record
76%
102-32 (134)
TBill1Invested
$883.42
Value
$903.84
PnL
+$19.94
Record
45%
154-188 (342)
AngryRhinoInvested
$758.76
Value
$757.91
PnL
-$1.25
Record
69%
133-59 (192)
WordleAddictInvested
$316.02
Value
$324.46
PnL
+$8.44
Record
61%
941-614 (1555)
bernardbulletinCTRInvested
$388.5
Value
$322.47
PnL
-$63.26
Record
69%
987-450 (1437)
Invested
$18.35
Value
$174.65
PnL
+$5.33
Record
53%
906-789 (1695)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.