Will the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by November 12, 2026?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 97¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$2.2K
$60.72
92.7¢ → 97¢
+5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Late
93h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xecb1d3b9d240a8347415108882cb8fa1f7e2f1c4 | Noavg 96.1¢ | $894.47 | $905.28 | +$12.51 | 63% 29-17 (46) |
NO nonkenny90 | Noavg 97.7¢ | $592.28 | $574.22 | -$4.68 | 90% 5638-601 (6239) |
 Car | Noavg 87¢ | $333.34 | $371.49 | +$38.16 | 66% 4492-2319 (6811) |
 ENORMOUZ | Noavg 80.9¢ | $276.37 | $332.25 | +$56.5 | 84% 138-27 (165) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.4¢ | $22.5 | $17 | -$5.5 | 46% 2135-2482 (4617) |
ME melonmanmCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $42.66 | $6.39 | -$36.27 | 65% 649-352 (1001) |
Invested
$894.47
Value
$905.28
PnL
+$12.51
Record
63%
29-17 (46)
Invested
$592.28
Value
$574.22
PnL
-$4.68
Record
90%
5638-601 (6239)
CarInvested
$333.34
Value
$371.49
PnL
+$38.16
Record
66%
4492-2319 (6811)
ENORMOUZInvested
$276.37
Value
$332.25
PnL
+$56.5
Record
84%
138-27 (165)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$22.5
Value
$17
PnL
-$5.5
Record
46%
2135-2482 (4617)
Invested
$42.66
Value
$6.39
PnL
-$36.27
Record
65%
649-352 (1001)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.