Consensus PnL $3.0K · win rate 85% (135–23, n=158) · was PM monthly #988 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$3.0K
Record
135W / 23L
Win Rate
85.0%
of 158 settled
Batting Avg
62.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#249
Source
PM monthly #988
Record (90 d)
196/221 · 89%
Trades
500
Markets
192
Volume
$68.2K
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Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 4 on the consensus side (50%)- Will the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by November 15, 2026?No $453 · now 47¢ · in at 49¢with the consensus (33% of 9)
- Will the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by November 12, 2026?No $332 · now 97¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
- Weed rescheduled by December 31?Yes $162 · now 10¢ · in at 13¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Saudi Arabia by December 31?Yes $41 · now 18¢ · in at 26¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
112 settled consensus markets · held side won 82% at an average entry of 74¢- Tech
+17 pts
side won 71% of 14 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +20%
- Elections
+9 pts
side won 93% of 14 · avg entry 84¢
ROI −2%
- Geopolitics
+4 pts
side won 68% of 22 · avg entry 64¢
ROI −10%
Weakest: Mentions — held side won 90% of 21 at an average 93¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI +9%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 15%(won 29% of 17)
- 30–50¢: 7%(won 38% of 8)
- 50–70¢: 13%(won 80% of 15)
- 70¢ and up: 64%(won 100% of 72)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.