Consensus PnL $3.2K · win rate 65% (28–15, n=43) · was PM monthly #997 · holds 18 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$3.2K
Record
28W / 15L
Win Rate
65.0%
of 43 settled
Batting Avg
47.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#631
Source
PM monthly #997
Record (90 d)
17/30 · 57%
Trades
465
Markets
87
Volume
$159.7K
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Top consensus positions
18 in listed consensus markets · 10 of 18 on the consensus side (56%)- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?No $8.2K · now 73¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (66% of 50)
- Iran full airspace closure by December 31?No $3.6K · now 73¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (69% of 29)
- Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Yes $3.2K · now 39¢ · in at 43¢against the consensus (No)
- Netanyahu out by end of 2026?No $2.9K · now 56¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (55% of 54)
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 30?Yes $2.5K · now 59¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (73% of 16)
- Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?No $1.3K · now 66¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (76% of 42)
- Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes $1.1K · now 7¢ · in at 4¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by November 12, 2026?No $896 · now 97¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
Specialties
30 settled consensus markets · held side won 57% at an average entry of 58¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where 0xecb1d3b9d240a8347415108882cb8fa1f7e2f1c4's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Elections — held side won 65% of 20 at an average 68¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 30%(won 0% of 9)
- 30–50¢: 10%(won 0% of 3)
- 50–70¢: 7%(won 50% of 2)
- 70¢ and up: 53%(won 100% of 16)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.