Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (53%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by November 15, 2026?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 47¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 16

Yes53¢No47¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

-$697.27

Smart Money Entry

73.4¢ → 46.8¢

-36% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes53%

No47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares4,208

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Yes6 traders

Total Value$837.86

Total Shares1,655

Combined PnL+$544.53

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Late

146h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO nonkenny90CTR	Noavg 88.1¢	$1.9K	$1.0K	-$888.81	90% 5638-601 (6239)
CarCTR	Noavg 65.6¢	$699.19	$501.11	-$198.08	66% 4492-2319 (6811)
ENORMOUZCTR	Noavg 49.5¢	$485.42	$453.09	-$154.92	84% 138-27 (165)
Marco-Rubio	Yesavg 57¢	$204	$250.5	+$46.5	53% 505-451 (956)
0X 0xecb1d3b9d240a8347415108882cb8fa1f7e2f1c4	Yesavg 12¢	$150	$217.26	+$426.53	63% 29-17 (46)
DG DG-NO	Yesavg 50.1¢	$150.3	$159	+$8.7	38% 842-1356 (2198)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495	Yesavg 7.3¢	$6.26	$104.89	+$41.72	49% 22892-23745 (46637)
MEPP	Yesavg 55.2¢	$78.78	$101.2	+$22.43	64% 646-361 (1007)
ME melonmanm<$100	Yesavg 65¢	$6.5	$5.01	-$1.34	65% 649-352 (1001)

nonkenny90CTR

Invested

$1,904.48

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$888.81

Record

90%

5638-601 (6239)

CarCTR

Invested

$699.19

Value

$501.11

PnL

-$198.08

Record

66%

4492-2319 (6811)

ENORMOUZCTR

Invested

$485.42

Value

$453.09

PnL

-$154.92

Record

84%

138-27 (165)

Marco-Rubio

Yes

Invested

$204

Value

$250.5

PnL

+$46.5

Record

53%

505-451 (956)

0xecb1d3b9d240a8347415108882cb8fa1f7e2f1c4

Yes

Invested

$150

Value

$217.26

PnL

+$426.53

Record

63%

29-17 (46)

DG-NO

Yes

Invested

$150.3

Value

$159

PnL

+$8.7

Record

38%

842-1356 (2198)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495

Yes

Invested

$6.26

Value

$104.89

PnL

+$41.72

Record

49%

22892-23745 (46637)

MEPP

Yes

Invested

$78.78

Value

$101.2

PnL

+$22.43

Record

64%

646-361 (1007)

melonmanm<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.5

Value

$5.01

PnL

-$1.34

Record

65%

649-352 (1001)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 47%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Late

146h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.0%

46.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$103.88

Max Loss

-$100.00

203.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.