Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 1.2¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 8, 2028
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 100%
$1.3K
$306.22
1.2¢ → 1.2¢
+2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
103 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 GayPrideCTR | Yes | $795.79 | $795.79 | +$304.59 | 49% 357-367 (724) |
11 11122CTR | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $181.8 | $262.46 | +$80.66 | 44% 1401-1817 (3218) |
 KnureKnumeCTR | Yesavg 1.8¢ | $156.95 | $120 | -$36.95 | 48% 400-435 (835) |
FA failstoberCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $13.5 | $44.53 | +$17.91 | 26% 351-985 (1336) |
0X 0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $0.01 | $36 | -$48.09 | 60% 1348-884 (2232) |
 ScottyNoooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.8¢ | $40 | $26.66 | -$13.33 | 50% 1537-1513 (3050) |
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100 | Yes | $3.46 | $3.46 | +$1.21 | 7% 14-187 (201) |
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.04 | $0.23 | +$0.23 | 33% 6263-12990 (19253) |
GayPrideCTRInvested
$795.79
Value
$795.79
PnL
+$304.59
Record
49%
357-367 (724)
Invested
$181.8
Value
$262.46
PnL
+$80.66
Record
44%
1401-1817 (3218)
KnureKnumeCTRInvested
$156.95
Value
$120
PnL
-$36.95
Record
48%
400-435 (835)
Invested
$13.5
Value
$44.53
PnL
+$17.91
Record
26%
351-985 (1336)
Invested
$0.01
Value
$36
PnL
-$48.09
Record
60%
1348-884 (2232)
ScottyNoooCTR<$100Invested
$40
Value
$26.66
PnL
-$13.33
Record
50%
1537-1513 (3050)
Invested
$3.46
Value
$3.46
PnL
+$1.21
Record
7%
14-187 (201)
Invested
$0.04
Value
$0.23
PnL
+$0.23
Record
33%
6263-12990 (19253)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.