Will Venezuela become 51st state?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $4K held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 100%
$4.5K
$81.66
96.1¢ → 97.9¢
+2% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Slowroasted | Noavg 95.9¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | +$40.69 | 88% 1990-279 (2269) |
 vacoolaaa | Noavg 96.6¢ | $943.09 | $955.19 | +$12.1 | 68% 124-59 (183) |
 Car | Noavg 96.6¢ | $512.24 | $537.55 | +$25.31 | 67% 4165-2026 (6191) |
HO HotDogs | Noavg 94.6¢ | $494.38 | $495.48 | +$1.11 | 94% 442-28 (470) |
 PaddyAlpha | Noavg 96.3¢ | $188.69 | $190.71 | +$2.01 | 59% 986-684 (1670) |
57 57284910 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $147.83 | $147.68 | -$0.08 | 100% 23-0 (23) |
 randomWalkingShrimp<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $19.2 | $19.56 | +$0.36 | 77% 1204-366 (1570) |
 GenaTheBondKilIer<$100 | Noavg 94.9¢ | $4.75 | $4.89 | +$0.15 | 51% 527-509 (1036) |
SlowroastedInvested
$2,102.67
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$40.69
Record
88%
1990-279 (2269)
vacoolaaaInvested
$943.09
Value
$955.19
PnL
+$12.1
Record
68%
124-59 (183)
CarInvested
$512.24
Value
$537.55
PnL
+$25.31
Record
67%
4165-2026 (6191)
Invested
$494.38
Value
$495.48
PnL
+$1.11
Record
94%
442-28 (470)
PaddyAlphaInvested
$188.69
Value
$190.71
PnL
+$2.01
Record
59%
986-684 (1670)
Invested
$147.83
Value
$147.68
PnL
-$0.08
Record
100%
23-0 (23)
randomWalkingShrimp<$100Invested
$19.2
Value
$19.56
PnL
+$0.36
Record
77%
1204-366 (1570)
GenaTheBondKilIer<$100Invested
$4.75
Value
$4.89
PnL
+$0.15
Record
51%
527-509 (1036)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.