Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in November?
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 97¢ · $12K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 78%
$12.3K
$50.84
96.4¢ → 97.4¢
+1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Late
247h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 boyau | Noavg 96.4¢ | $8.3K | $8.4K | +$80.14 | 37% 125-209 (334) |
AV Avamax | Noavg 97.1¢ | $2.9K | $2.9K | +$5.6 | — 0-2 (2) |
C0 C03B | Noavg 91¢ | $273 | $291.9 | +$18.9 | 87% 231-34 (265) |
 EgoVolae | Noavg 95.7¢ | $187.47 | $190.61 | +$3.13 | — 6-7 (13) |
0X 0x25db6cA5935ae858A5c1F2dCD5c62939805328dE-1770665598557CTR | Yesavg 4.7¢ | $415.84 | $159.96 | -$38.49 | 0% 0-32 (32) |
 zxdw | Noavg 95¢ | $99.11 | $101.51 | +$2.4 | — |
HU hugecaulkCTR | Yesavg 3.4¢ | $113.76 | $91.29 | -$22.47 | 5% 1-19 (20) |
TE test456y78<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $67.45 | $69.08 | +$1.63 | 18% 13-61 (74) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 97.3¢ | $35.35 | $35.35 | +$0 | 85% 29-5 (34) |
boyauInvested
$8,346.11
Value
$8.4K
PnL
+$80.14
Record
37%
125-209 (334)
Invested
$2,885.56
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$5.6
Record
—
0-2 (2)
Invested
$273
Value
$291.9
PnL
+$18.9
Record
87%
231-34 (265)
EgoVolaeInvested
$187.47
Value
$190.61
PnL
+$3.13
Record
—
6-7 (13)
Invested
$415.84
Value
$159.96
PnL
-$38.49
Record
0%
0-32 (32)
zxdwInvested
$99.11
Value
$101.51
PnL
+$2.4
Record
—
Invested
$113.76
Value
$91.29
PnL
-$22.47
Record
5%
1-19 (20)
Invested
$67.45
Value
$69.08
PnL
+$1.63
Record
18%
13-61 (74)
Invested
$35.35
Value
$35.35
PnL
+$0
Record
85%
29-5 (34)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.