Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (79%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?

7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 21¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes21¢No79¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$256.48

Smart Money Entry

13.1¢ → 21¢

+61% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes21%

No79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$680.08

Total Shares3,223

Combined PnL+$256.48

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

710h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

17 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Contentious-DinnerdateCTR	Yesavg 15.2¢	$375.51	$520.69	+$145.18	50% 415-417 (832)
PaddyAlphaARB<$100	Noavg 89.8¢	$326.4	$363.45	+$37.05	59% 986-684 (1670)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 7.1¢	$77.5	$229.32	+$55.66
└ No leg	Noavg 89.8¢	$152.66	$134.13	-$18.61
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.2¢	$20.21	$58.88	+$38.53	32% 4495-9638 (14133)
Optimus-CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.8¢	$6.4	$49.1	+$42.7	61% 1200-768 (1968)
cambridgeisaacCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$3	$21.1	+$18.15	57% 1114-837 (1951)
0X 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876CTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$8.03	$16.95	+$8.91	45% 112-138 (250)
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100	Yes	$12.02	$12.02	+$2.48	39% 1781-2832 (4613)
ME melonmanmCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.8¢	$0.82	$1.35	+$0.53	65% 527-282 (809)

Contentious-DinnerdateCTR

Yes

Invested

$375.51

Value

$520.69

PnL

+$145.18

Record

50%

415-417 (832)

PaddyAlphaARB<$100

Invested

$326.4

Value

$363.45

PnL

+$37.05

Record

59%

986-684 (1670)

Both legs:

Yes$77.57.1¢+$55.66

No$152.6689.8¢-$18.61

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.21

Value

$58.88

PnL

+$38.53

Record

32%

4495-9638 (14133)

Optimus-CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.4

Value

$49.1

PnL

+$42.7

Record

61%

1200-768 (1968)

cambridgeisaacCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$21.1

PnL

+$18.15

Record

57%

1114-837 (1951)

0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.03

Value

$16.95

PnL

+$8.91

Record

45%

112-138 (250)

BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.02

Value

$12.02

PnL

+$2.48

Record

39%

1781-2832 (4613)

melonmanmCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.82

Value

$1.35

PnL

+$0.53

Record

65%

527-282 (809)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

710h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

17 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance22.7%

21.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$340.79

Max Loss

-$100.00

440.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.