Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 71¢ · $6K held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 100%
$6.4K
-$153.29
71.9¢ → 70.5¢
-2% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 56%
Freshness
Late
1581h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 cambridgeisaac | Noavg 72.6¢ | $2.7K | $2.6K | -$99.17 | 57% 1114-837 (1951) |
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Noavg 71.9¢ | $967.21 | $941.21 | -$19.27 | 53% 1174-1056 (2230) |
 StarMaster | Noavg 71.4¢ | $892.4 | $875.22 | -$17.18 | 53% 1858-1640 (3498) |
 debased | Noavg 72¢ | $733.02 | $712.66 | -$15.27 | 58% 2317-1682 (3999) |
 PaddyAlpha | Noavg 69.9¢ | $432.46 | $432.27 | -$0.19 | 59% 986-684 (1670) |
 BlondBeast | Noavg 73.4¢ | $426.62 | $406.87 | -$16.84 | 69% 780-347 (1127) |
 Dragontree | Noavg 68¢ | $344.72 | $354.86 | +$12.67 | 58% 1250-888 (2138) |
CO cocococococo<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $28.64 | $30.61 | +$1.97 | 52% 1665-1535 (3200) |
cambridgeisaacInvested
$2,721.93
Value
$2.6K
PnL
-$99.17
Record
57%
1114-837 (1951)
Invested
$967.21
Value
$941.21
PnL
-$19.27
Record
53%
1174-1056 (2230)
StarMasterInvested
$892.4
Value
$875.22
PnL
-$17.18
Record
53%
1858-1640 (3498)
debasedInvested
$733.02
Value
$712.66
PnL
-$15.27
Record
58%
2317-1682 (3999)
PaddyAlphaInvested
$432.46
Value
$432.27
PnL
-$0.19
Record
59%
986-684 (1670)
BlondBeastInvested
$426.62
Value
$406.87
PnL
-$16.84
Record
69%
780-347 (1127)
DragontreeInvested
$344.72
Value
$354.86
PnL
+$12.67
Record
58%
1250-888 (2138)
Invested
$28.64
Value
$30.61
PnL
+$1.97
Record
52%
1665-1535 (3200)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.