Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 10 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (91%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $579 held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 91%

Total Value

$578.84

Combined PnL

-$491.29

Smart Money Entry

0.5¢ → 0.1¢

-69% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$390.41

Total Shares260,275

Combined PnL-$493.06

No1 trader

Total Value$188.43

Total Shares189

Combined PnL+$1.77

Yes — 91%No — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

175 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

91% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x20D6436849F930584892730C7F96eBB2Ac763856-1768642056357CTR	Yesavg 0.2¢	$259.77	$194.83	-$64.94	52% 747-702 (1449)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 98.9¢	$186.65	$188.43	+$1.77	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
Q9 Q96s3kwozynxpauCTR	Yesavg 1.2¢	$285.85	$77.02	-$208.83	41% 166-240 (406)
11 11122CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$60	$45	-$15	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$141.93	$39	-$102.93	67% 751-378 (1129)
LO Logan.CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$38.31	$15.88	-$64.05	41% 648-925 (1573)
DonkovCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$16.06	$11	-$5.05	71% 968-396 (1364)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$34.55	$6.64	-$27.96	47% 83-94 (177)
flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$2.72	$0.54	-$2.18	39% 965-1508 (2473)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$0.43	$0.43	-$1.8	7% 14-187 (201)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$0.39	$0.08	-$0.32	33% 6263-12990 (19253)

0x20D6436849F930584892730C7F96eBB2Ac763856-1768642056357CTR

Yes

Invested

$259.77

Value

$194.83

PnL

-$64.94

Record

52%

747-702 (1449)

ghorrock

Invested

$186.65

Value

$188.43

PnL

+$1.77

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

Q96s3kwozynxpauCTR

Yes

Invested

$285.85

Value

$77.02

PnL

-$208.83

Record

41%

166-240 (406)

11122CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$60

Value

$45

PnL

-$15

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR

Yes

Invested

$141.93

Value

$39

PnL

-$102.93

Record

67%

751-378 (1129)

Logan.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.31

Value

$15.88

PnL

-$64.05

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

DonkovCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.06

Value

$11

PnL

-$5.05

Record

71%

968-396 (1364)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.55

Value

$6.64

PnL

-$27.96

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.72

Value

$0.54

PnL

-$2.18

Record

39%

965-1508 (2473)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.43

Value

$0.43

PnL

-$1.8

Record

14-187 (201)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.39

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$0.32

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

175 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

91% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8264.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

8364.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.