Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (96%). 12 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship?

12 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (86%) · Yes at 3.6¢ · $8K held · ends Apr 1, 2027

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Thu, Apr 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 86%

Total Value

$8.5K

Combined PnL

$560.01

Smart Money Entry

3.4¢ → 3.6¢

+7% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 14 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes12 traders

Total Value$8.4K

Total Shares234,574

Combined PnL+$559.78

No2 traders

Total Value$21.02

Total Shares22

Combined PnL+$0.23

Yes — 86%No — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

210 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 82% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 91% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NooseracCTR	Yesavg 3.2¢	$3.9K	$4.3K	+$469.83	52% 5832-5416 (11248)
0X 0x20D6436849F930584892730C7F96eBB2Ac763856-1768642056357CTR	Yesavg 3.1¢	$881.46	$1.0K	+$140.16	52% 747-702 (1449)
TH thebug44CTR	Yesavg 3.6¢	$946.06	$955.66	+$9.6	33% 42-86 (128)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 3.3¢	$574.5	$619.39	+$44.89	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
LiquidatedDegenCTR	Yesavg 3.2¢	$500.17	$558.96	+$58.81	42% 1081-1477 (2558)
solwizzo-onXCTR	Yesavg 4.1¢	$507.23	$486.89	-$20.34	67% 347-174 (521)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 5.3¢	$454.75	$319.5	-$135.25	53% 3037-2716 (5753)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$0.33	$60.72	+$9.64	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$65.39	$39.23	-$26.15	49% 1830-1896 (3726)
TY TyshaCTR<$100	Yes	$40	$23.51	+$4.54	72% 8306-3183 (11489)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yes	$19.27	$19.27	+$3.05	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100	Noavg 95¢	$15.97	$16.2	+$0.24	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
LE leegunnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$11.07	$12.07	+$1.01	41% 1281-1829 (3110)
0X 0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100	Noavg 96.6¢	$4.83	$4.82	-$0.01	73% 41-15 (56)

NooseracCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,857.98

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$469.83

Record

52%

5832-5416 (11248)

0x20D6436849F930584892730C7F96eBB2Ac763856-1768642056357CTR

Yes

Invested

$881.46

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$140.16

Record

52%

747-702 (1449)

thebug44CTR

Yes

Invested

$946.06

Value

$955.66

PnL

+$9.6

Record

33%

42-86 (128)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$574.5

Value

$619.39

PnL

+$44.89

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

LiquidatedDegenCTR

Yes

Invested

$500.17

Value

$558.96

PnL

+$58.81

Record

42%

1081-1477 (2558)

solwizzo-onXCTR

Yes

Invested

$507.23

Value

$486.89

PnL

-$20.34

Record

67%

347-174 (521)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$454.75

Value

$319.5

PnL

-$135.25

Record

53%

3037-2716 (5753)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.33

Value

$60.72

PnL

+$9.64

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$65.39

Value

$39.23

PnL

-$26.15

Record

49%

1830-1896 (3726)

TyshaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40

Value

$23.51

PnL

+$4.54

Record

72%

8306-3183 (11489)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.27

Value

$19.27

PnL

+$3.05

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

wokerjoesleeper<$100

Invested

$15.97

Value

$16.2

PnL

+$0.24

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

leegunnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.07

Value

$12.07

PnL

+$1.01

Record

41%

1281-1829 (3110)

0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100

Invested

$4.83

Value

$4.82

PnL

-$0.01

Record

73%

41-15 (56)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 14 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

210 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 82% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 91% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance4.8%

3.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1974.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

2074.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.