Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (97%). 14 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship?

14 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 2.6¢ · $10K held · ends Apr 1, 2027

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Thu, Apr 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 88%

Total Value

$9.8K

Combined PnL

-$52.21

Smart Money Entry

2.6¢ → 2.6¢

+0% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 16 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes14 traders

Total Value$9.8K

Total Shares381,397

Combined PnL-$52.15

No2 traders

Total Value$28.83

Total Shares30

Combined PnL-$0.06

Yes — 88%No — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Late

4826h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

43 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 8

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 92% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL flawfenceCTR	Yesavg 2.6¢	$4.0K	$3.9K	-$65.79	46% 271-319 (590)
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 2.3¢	$2.2K	$2.5K	+$284.61	43% 561-738 (1299)
0X 0x20D6436849F930584892730C7F96eBB2Ac763856-1768642056357CTR	Yesavg 3¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$184.13	52% 747-702 (1449)
BT BTCGambler247CTR	Yesavg 3.3¢	$836.37	$601.78	-$184.09	47% 217-240 (457)
NooseracCTR	Yesavg 2.1¢	$289.71	$361.83	+$72.12	52% 5832-5416 (11248)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 2.4¢	$691.65	$287.3	+$104.06	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
mountaindewdCTR	Yesavg 2.6¢	$278.17	$256.77	+$0.01	54% 344-290 (634)
solwizzo-onXCTR	Yesavg 3.6¢	$246.1	$172.75	-$73.35	67% 347-174 (521)
probabilityCTR	Yesavg 1.3¢	$13.65	$126.89	-$5.27	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 1.3¢	$55	$120	+$65	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
cambridgeisaacCTR	Yesavg 2.6¢	$129.38	$117.77	-$1.79	57% 1114-837 (1951)
LE leegunnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$95.75	$72.4	-$23.34	41% 1281-1829 (3110)
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$24.04	$23.96	-$0.08	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR	Yesavg 2.8¢	$164.55	$23.13	-$36.24	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.4¢	$22.14	$18.22	-$3.92	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
0X 0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100	Noavg 97¢	$4.85	$4.87	+$0.02	73% 41-15 (56)

flawfenceCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,962.55

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$65.79

Record

46%

271-319 (590)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,181.99

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$284.61

Record

43%

561-738 (1299)

0x20D6436849F930584892730C7F96eBB2Ac763856-1768642056357CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,452.44

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$184.13

Record

52%

747-702 (1449)

BTCGambler247CTR

Yes

Invested

$836.37

Value

$601.78

PnL

-$184.09

Record

47%

217-240 (457)

NooseracCTR

Yes

Invested

$289.71

Value

$361.83

PnL

+$72.12

Record

52%

5832-5416 (11248)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$691.65

Value

$287.3

PnL

+$104.06

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

mountaindewdCTR

Yes

Invested

$278.17

Value

$256.77

PnL

+$0.01

Record

54%

344-290 (634)

solwizzo-onXCTR

Yes

Invested

$246.1

Value

$172.75

PnL

-$73.35

Record

67%

347-174 (521)

probabilityCTR

Yes

Invested

$13.65

Value

$126.89

PnL

-$5.27

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$55

Value

$120

PnL

+$65

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

cambridgeisaacCTR

Yes

Invested

$129.38

Value

$117.77

PnL

-$1.79

Record

57%

1114-837 (1951)

leegunnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$95.75

Value

$72.4

PnL

-$23.34

Record

41%

1281-1829 (3110)

wokerjoesleeper<$100

Invested

$24.04

Value

$23.96

PnL

-$0.08

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

Elias.ThornwellCTR

Yes

Invested

$164.55

Value

$23.13

PnL

-$36.24

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.14

Value

$18.22

PnL

-$3.92

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100

Invested

$4.85

Value

$4.87

PnL

+$0.02

Record

73%

41-15 (56)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 16 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Late

4826h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

43 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 8

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 92% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.8%

2.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2550.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

2650.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.